Canada’s Dollar Falls Against Australia’s as U.S. Shuts Down
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“What’s negative for the U.S. growth outlook is also negative for Canada,” said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. The Canadian dollar was at C$1.0312, or 96.97 U.S. cents, weaker than Monday’s close of C$1.0303, or 97.06 U.S. cents. The shutdown also cast uncertainty on two other points of focus for markets: the looming deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and the potential path of the Federal Reserve’s economic stimulus program. The next big political battle lawmakers face is raising the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling by mid-October. Failure to do so would force the United States to default on some payment obligations, and Tuesday’s government shutdown raised investors’ concerns about politicians’ ability to come to an agreement. While the political wrangling has shifted some attention away from monetary policy, analysts were also trying to gauge what impact a drawn-out shutdown could have on the Fed’s current efforts to prop up the economy. The central bank surprised markets last month by holding the pace of its $85 billion a month in bond purchases steady. “We know the Fed has already delayed tapering once on the back of what could potentially happen in U.S. political gridlock, so should this be a prolonged shutdown, that suggests the Fed could delay again,” said Sutton. At home, investors will be watching a speech from Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem, scheduled for later in the day.
The currency, called the loonie, fell against the majority of its most-traded peers as debate looms on raising the U.S. debt ceiling within three weeks. Australias dollar climbed after the nations Reserve Bank left borrowing costs unchanged today. A partial shutdown of the federal government would cost the U.S. at least $300 million a day in lost economic output at the start, according to IHS Inc. Weve got uncertainty whether or not Canadian exports to the U.S. are going to rebound sharply over the next several months with this uncertainty over the government shutdown and the U.S. economic outlook. David Watt , chief economist at the Canadian unit of HSBC Holdings Plc, said in a phone interview. It makes sense the Canadian dollar would lag its commodity peers during an episode such as this. It will behave more like the U.S. dollar because of the close ties. The loonie, nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, gained 0.1 percent to C$1.0302 per U.S.